If ever there was a reason to end this pandemic fiasco, now is it. While studies[1] have been pointing towards a fatality rate of under 0.5% for many weeks now, finally the CDC’s own data validates these estimates.
To simplify the CDC’s data puts the fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 at[2]:
- 0-49 years old: 0.05%
- 50-64 years old: 0.2%
- 65+ years old: 1.3%
- Overall ages: 0.4%
So with all age ranges fatality rates combined you have an overall fatality rate of just 0.4%, a far cry from the original 6% estimate that was being thrown at us at the beginning of this pandemic.
For under 50-year-olds though the news is even better, with a fatality rate of just 0.05% your facing no more severe than seasonal influenza.
But that’s not it, the numbers get even better. The CDC numbers are taken from symptomatic carriers only, which the CDC estimates to be around 65%[2]. So while many think this number is a little high, let’s use it anyway to adjust the fatality rate further to include the 35% asymptomatic carriers.
Quick video showing how to calculate the IFR from the CFR which the CDC gave us using actuals AND the 35% asymptomatic rate.
I think I have this right now. pic.twitter.com/XuC8f3FVtf
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) May 22, 2020
So taking into consideration both asymptomatic and the CDC estimated symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases the final fatality rate comes in at just .26%
Now it should be noted that the CDC clearly state that these numbers may change, they are evolving with new data all the time. The numbers will change, the fatality rate will probably decline even further as we find the true number of symptomatic carriers is far higher than 35%.
So lets just give the Worlds Governments and health organisations the benefit of the doubt for a minute and assume the response to this virus was because of the lack of data and knowledge on the severity of the Virus. But now with everything we know about the severity of the virus, surely now it’s time to put their hands up and say, “OK, we got it wrong, we overreacted, but it’s better to be safe than sorry”.
This, in my opinion, is the only way any Government who has implemented the extreme lockdown and social distancing measures can come out of this with any credibility at all. Of course, this is assuming we give the benefit of doubt. Which I do not.
It’s very important these new numbers get shared, there has been very little media attention on these new CDC estimates and yet it’s probably the most significant news on this pandemic we’ve had in months.
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